Disinformation campaigns…
Active measures…
Russian intrusion…
Ballot Marking Device hacking…
Armed goons stationed at polling places to intimidate in-person voters…
Mail delays…
Rejected ballots…
What are we in for, in the coming electoral storm?
There is cause for genuine concern. I just heard from a techie who attended a national security briefing on current intrusion/hacking attempts. He said when he left the meeting he felt “nauseous.”
We’re all nauseous. And exhausted. And furious. And bewildered. How in the world has America’s election come to this? Forget the incumbent and all the sand and noise he throws into the gears – and (maybe more importantly) into the confidence of voters in the outcome. How have we made ourselves so profoundly vulnerable, so open to manipulation, distraction and downright alteration of the outcome?
It’s taken decades to dig this hole. We cancelled the Fairness Doctrine and were rewarded by Fox News and Sinclair Broadcasting. Oh and let’s not forget Rush. The government has been starved for funds for basic services including elections systems. Keep taxes low, and safety nets scanty – that’s the (new) American Way. Don’t need no steenking paid sick leave, guaranteed healthcare or inviolable election systems. You got a problem with that?! Smash mouth politics replaces “in the public interest.” We have been amused, and now we are dying.
It will take a decade, if we move fast, to repair the mechanics of our hackable, untrustworthy election systems – of which we have 51, one for each state plus DC.
But I digress. How bad is it NOW? How chaotic and terrible might the election that supposedly culminates on the night of November 3, 2020 be?
It might not be so bad. Even without the Federal funds that would have enabled states to prepare for a deluge of mailed ballots, and without adequate money to staff polling centers so hours-long lines aren’t endemic, we may stumble through this fraught national election with nary a catastrophe. Some states are going to start opening mailed ballots early so the count doesn’t get crazy on election night. Media spokespeople are warning voters to get their ballots early and return them asap. People are planning to walk ballots in, rather than test the PO. Meanwhile the postal service is bound to demonstrate it’s not a complete failure – not least because its fiscal survival will be decided by the government about to be elected. Voter mail is a tiny fraction of typical Christmas mail, and it’s going to be spread out over a longer interval. I think the postal system is going to perform adequately.
So where is the disaster? The looming danger would be in crucial states that will decide the electoral vote count. If those states can report their outcomes with confidence on election night, this is a done deal. And if the margin is big, there will be little wiggle room for domestically-generated mischief. It’s terrible to be reduced to praying for an outcome, but if the plurality is gigantic – as some polls suggest – voter suppression, spoiled ballots, long lines, denied credentials won’t matter. They literally will not matter – they will provide no determining substance to the outcome.
Florida is a good example of a paradoxically likely high performer. The president praised Florida for its experience in handling mailed ballots. It is probable that Florida will announce its results with confidence on the evening of Nov 3. If Florida, perchance, goes for the other guy, it’s game over because there is no path to victory for the incumbent without Florida. California is not going red. And Texas might, in this strange moment, go blue. Either way, most of the Midwest is going back to being a wall for the blue team and Spanky and his gang may have to freshen up their resumes. And their legal teams.
If, on the other hand, the vote is close in a number of states, a problem could arise for those who hope for peaceful transition. Because the in-person voters will be largely Republican, thanks to the able work of 45 in dissuading mail-in balloting amidst a pandemic. (What pandemic? Says the White House. That’s on the ballot, by the way.) So exit polls on Nov 3 may show the incumbent leading. But up to 70% of all ballots may be mail-in. I’ve seen “official” estimates of 80,000,000 mailed ballots. I personally am picturing over 100 million, along with a turnout of over 70% of all voters – a staggering 165,000,000 voters. The plurality could be 40,000,000. That will not invite mischief – but it could take some days to count.
In that interval will come the Russians and their useful idiots. QAnon and her minions. Facebook at its brimming worst. Conspiracy theories and armed hooligans defending their right to get deathly ill, whatever happens to their countrymen. Real patriots, indeed, may storm their state houses demanding – what??
In truth, I don’t think we’ll see much disorder in the streets. More likely the tattoo crowd will drink themselves into a stupor as they mull the decades of decency to which they may be subjected at the hands of the coastal elites who are, sadly, the majority. Darn that democracy!
As for removal from office… I saw Al Gore comment on this the other evening; he was wonderfully persuasive and cogent. “I don’t care what he says or does,” said Gore. “He is not the system. The Constitution is very clear on this.” And he whose name can’t be uttered will obey those explicit instructions. Or the Secret Service, backed up by the 82nd Airborne, will elucidate the rules.
As for damage after Nov. 3 – we’ll get to that. Let’s stick to our knitting meanwhile. There’s work to be done in coming weeks to ensure a secure election. This will be followed by a mighty campaign to fix our shattered election system. Therein lies a future in which we can all believe, and invest, and raise our children in peace.